Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ee5eba77a177cf582e445cab2ea9d0673bcb0d5b620ed42ba591f4d76fcdc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 608.13$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 436.74$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 422.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 410.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 9c | 357.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 334.46$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.95 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 53c | 302.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 26c | 301.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 296.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 295.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 27c | 222.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 69c | 221.04$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 209.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 64c | 208.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 38c | 207.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 71c | 202.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 198.28$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 176.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 161.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 148.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 57c | 141.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb62b…09f5backed No | 52c | 134.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 125.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 121.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 55c | 112.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 111.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 110.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 107.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 106.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 78c | 98.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 50c | 97.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 18c | 84.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 84.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 81.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 18c | 79.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed Yes | 79c | 79.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 24c | 75.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 57c | 74.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 72.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 43c | 71.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 67c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 30c | 63.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 36c | 63.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 62c | 62.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 60.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 40c | 59.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad33…0cebbacked Yes | 80c | 53.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 52.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…45febacked Yes | 69c | 51.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 62c | 51.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 54c | 51.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 49.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…0b78backed No | 76c | 48.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 60c | 41.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 46c | 41.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 53c | 40.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 39.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 76c | 38.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 52c | 36.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 71c | 36.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 35.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 42c | 35.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 34.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 33.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 71c | 33.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 62c | 31.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 30.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 44c | 29.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 43c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 49c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 45c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 64c | 24.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 69c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 48c | 22.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 22.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…ee44backed No | 57c | 21.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 62c | 21.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed No | 46c | 21.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…f9ebbacked Yes | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 75c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 74c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 15.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.