TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c608.13$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.938,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c436.74$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c422.72$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes35c410.24$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.411,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No9c357.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes36c334.46$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.951,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes53c302.2$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5421436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No26c301.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.354,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No63c296.4$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.131542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c295.88$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No27c222.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No69c221.04$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.529333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c209.98$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.471,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes64c208.6$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6330046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No38c207.23$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes71c202.04$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1164037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes57c198.28$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.694,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No57c176.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.271,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c161.38$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.654,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes44c148.31$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2129640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes57c141.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb62b…09f5backed No52c134.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.47977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c125.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c121.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.541,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes55c112.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c111.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.363,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes33c110.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7631029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c107.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.689,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No13c106.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4332818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes78c98.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.327540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes50c97.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2225037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed No18c84.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No62c84.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c81.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.033,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No18c79.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x615b…2ba8backed Yes79c79.07$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.63467.6%23 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb4…98e9backed No24c75.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes57c74.76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes43c72.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.551,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No43c71.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes67c68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.657841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes30c63.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes36c63.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x884f…c132backed Yes62c62.21$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.742832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No67c60.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4230859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes40c59.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.719344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes53c53.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.351560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad33…0cebbacked Yes80c53.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.66475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes33c52.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.991,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6733…45febacked Yes69c51.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.831090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No62c51.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8523349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No54c51.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.961,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3041733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes31c49.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e92…0b78backed No76c48.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.73450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a15…76afbacked No60c41.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.877844.9%35 W · 43 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes46c41.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.384647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa48a…fa82backed No53c40.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.332740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes47c39.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No76c38.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2913053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes52c36.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4915047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No71c36.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6619152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No59c35.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9524149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No42c35.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7720928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No70c34.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1354867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No56c33.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7920353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No71c33.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.413059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No62c31.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.389943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes42c30.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…30d9backed Yes44c29.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed Yes43c27.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6614332.9%47 W · 96 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2f…bad2backed No49c26.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.895837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…ef70backed No55c26.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.333658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes45c25.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No64c24.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7515954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes80c24.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.952646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No61c24.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No78c24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.725062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed Yes69c23.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.278461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No62c23.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4310444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No48c22.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No50c22.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3311925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No65c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No69c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.189858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cea…ee44backed No57c21.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No62c21.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.464748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x859c…38e4backed No46c21.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.052114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes55c20.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2220866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.29142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc680…f9ebbacked Yes73c19.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No76c19.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6541460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f6…f045backed No75c19.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.343580%28 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c18.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.962,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c17.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes74c16.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c15.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.731,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.