Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Sebastian Baez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20e1bd191fce84c4d8e90efd3f5112c51e8612ac70fc5a2369435bf677494e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baezof Zhang, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zhang | 51c | 2,270$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.91 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Zhang | 56c | 1,880$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.19 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Baez | 54c | 1,500$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.91 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Zhang | 52c | 1,365$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.15 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Zhang | 54c | 1,315$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.77 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Baez | 46c | 1,258$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.32 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Zhang | 55c | 1,193$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Baez | 49c | 1,017$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.56 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Baez | 46c | 1,000$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.59 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Baez | 45c | 606$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.97 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Zhang | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Zhang | 52c | 489.11$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.76 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Zhang | 55c | 487$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Baez | 44c | 459$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baez | 45c | 419.3$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Baez | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Baez | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Baez | 19c | 270.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.53 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Baez | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zhang | 54c | 226.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Zhang | 50c | 221.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Zhang | 51c | 204.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Baez | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zhang | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Zhang | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Baez | 41c | 175.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Zhang | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Zhang | 58c | 127.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Baez | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Zhang | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Baez | 40c | 86.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Zhang | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Baez | 52c | 77.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Baez | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Zhang | 60c | 57.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Baez | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Zhang | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Baez | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Baez | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Baez | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Baez | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Baez | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.