Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe217213c0b146869ee120d57d12e94a13d2c09c4e28df7a26ce4e9316325918f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 1c | 2,145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 59c | 878.74$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.5 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 572.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 13c | 190.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 49c | 175.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 165$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 16c | 154.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 41c | 147.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 15c | 129.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 115.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 17c | 115.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 25c | 114.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 27c | 105.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 33c | 100.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 99.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 85.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 72.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 25c | 69.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 30c | 66.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 65.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 64.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 62.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 48c | 61.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 59.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 57.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 57.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 56.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 42c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 72c | 55.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked No | 55c | 39.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 38.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 35.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 49c | 30.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…010bbacked No | 70c | 28.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 69c | 27.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 73c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8346…df00backed No | 71c | 24.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 51c | 24.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed No | 70c | 20.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d4…7cf4backed No | 76c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 78c | 19.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…fee5backed No | 69c | 16.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.