Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4bab4d993ead88b9288933d63d8ea4229ce48d02522c3cbf8a3239906c76709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 55c | 736.49$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.78 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 518.46$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 470.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 190.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 182.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 165$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 150.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 51c | 99.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 58c | 86.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 35c | 86.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 83.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 73.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 70.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 70.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 47c | 69.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 65.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 60.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 47c | 58.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 48c | 51.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 50.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 56c | 47.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 50c | 46.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 45.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 43.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 43.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed No | 64c | 39.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 30c | 38.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 52c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes | 63c | 35.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked Yes | 38c | 33.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 54c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 57c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 29.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 27.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4db…ed01backed Yes | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 77c | 26.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9a…9456backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 78c | 22.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 57c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 50c | 20.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 69c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 64c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.