WNBA · resolved market
New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe218c13faaa8059a4ebfccada27ab6ac2b147f33d162da3c64045740ecf2176c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 7,062$3,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,673.26 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 2,496$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.73 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…bc01backed Under | 71c | 749.26$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 48c | 745$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.4 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 25c | 507.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.47 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Over | 31c | 311.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…35f8backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…8a1dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 81.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…80debacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 53c | 72.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 43c | 69.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -7.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…bd1bbacked Over | 48c | 62.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 50c | 58.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Under | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Under | 53c | 28.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…4770backed Over | 56c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Under | 76c | 13.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5this page
- New York Liberty vs. Portland FireNew York Liberty won
- New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 176.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 177.5Over won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5)New York Liberty won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.