Fifa International · resolved market
Will France beat Belgium?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe221089400c4563a02fdd38b856970906b62e64ea77955c48519681858308b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a5a…ab8ebacked No | 0c | 12,480$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 29c | 4,302$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.19 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 61c | 2,007$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.97 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 43c | 1,590$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.58 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 57c | 1,250$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.49 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 43c | 1,175$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 55c | 818.97$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.1 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 58c | 749.91$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.95 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 65c | 722.48$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 42c | 715.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 58c | 410.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…5355backed Yes | 42c | 374.79$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 43c | 317.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 59c | 308.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 39c | 262.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 78c | 223.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…0042backed No | 38c | 190.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 71c | 190.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5f6cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fd…5ca7backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yes | 67c | 68.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 68c | 63.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 58c | 47.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…14cbbacked Yes | 70c | 40.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3a…170bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…4d66backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France beat Belgium?this page
- Will Belgium beat France?No won
- Will the match between Belgium and France end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.