NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Norway vs. Sweden
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe235a681d9243d7933b0f222c3b9ef235170b76fda65f82ce58917addb7d0161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norwayof Norway, Sweden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Norway | 15c | 3,437$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.36 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Norway | 49c | 2,055$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.09 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Sweden | 51c | 1,266$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.42 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Norway | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ca12backed Sweden | 51c | 806.68$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.34 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Norway | 12c | 518$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Norway | 62c | 508.25$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.46 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Sweden | 60c | 498.97$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Norway | 11c | 434.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.5 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Sweden | 65c | 311.57$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.53 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…f8c0backed Norway | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +151%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sweden | 19c | 269.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Norway | 38c | 232.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Sweden | 27c | 203.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…95e1backed Sweden | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Norway | 29c | 195.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Sweden | 77c | 173.8$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sweden | 21c | 172.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Norway | 13c | 171.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Norway | 11c | 170.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.46 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a31…388cbacked Sweden | 70c | 168.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Norway | 47c | 162.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Norway | 58c | 138.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Norway | 21c | 135.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…ffe9backed Norway | 74c | 135.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…ca41backed Norway | 19c | 124.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Sweden | 51c | 119.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Norway | 17c | 101.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Norway | 49c | 99.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Norway | 14c | 95.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Norway | 32c | 94.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Norway | 13c | 88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Sweden | 68c | 82.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Sweden | 77c | 65.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Norway | 56c | 64.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…743ebacked Norway | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…a562backed Sweden | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -61%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…5942backed Norway | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…6ca6backed Norway | 32c | 44.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed Norway | 26c | 43.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…5309backed Norway | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0af…f74bbacked Norway | 27c | 38.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…833ebacked Norway | 41c | 38.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Sweden | 61c | 36.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Sweden | 73c | 28.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8559…c9f7backed Sweden | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Norway | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.