MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe247dc592a1555e87763f89d3cc902b89b3f6050fe8e7577aa13c014ddfb7530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 73c | 49,573$36,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,269.91 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 25c | 23,775$5,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,943.68 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 29c | 12,691$3,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680.27 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 5,822$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 27c | 4,590$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…55d6backed Over | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 5c | 484.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 323.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 66c | 319$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 65c | 55.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 34c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 31c | 41.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…fb58backed Under | 75c | 39.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 29c | 38.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 65c | 37.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.