MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x328d9191e16ecb4da340779c8aa6a98b2475ab28e9639a422013fa6f60383f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 4,714$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 3,398$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 1,764$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 1,116$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 942.2$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.27 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 803.53$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 502.71$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 490$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 472.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 384.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 303.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 221$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 163.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 151.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 151.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 109.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 100.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 85.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 74.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 64.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 57.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 50.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 35.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 34.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 32.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.