MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f1eab5818c3f209901b4c8c644b0241d365845f9e1f76b675e6c0a8463fe0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 4,090$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 60c | 2,650$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0569…f656backed Yes | 42c | 2,548$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.08 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.64 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…707fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,333$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 58c | 1,285$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.33 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Yes | 40c | 1,040$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 870.38$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 856.51$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.79 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 59c | 836.99$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.17 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 808.22$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.92 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 726.41$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 62c | 672.5$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 40c | 590.8$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 42c | 511.63$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.7 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed No | 59c | 489.11$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.54 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 60c | 450$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Yes | 41c | 394$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 59c | 236.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 61c | 213.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 41c | 213$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 41c | 213$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 41c | 195$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 173$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Yes | 40c | 169.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 61c | 164.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 161.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 60c | 161.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 60c | 152.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Yes | 40c | 130.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes | 42c | 107.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed No | 60c | 96.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…7131backed No | 60c | 53.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 42c | 35.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 42c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…9d26backed No | 59c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.