Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe24872e5e6f39e7729b6a370e17183c2ce0be1ddfab357cf2b94fefbfb55c94d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 6,066$4,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.22 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Yes | 25c | 5,124$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 1,273$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.01 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 992.84$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.36 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 28c | 956.8$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 50c | 949.05$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 27c | 881.19$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 396.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 28c | 362.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Yes | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 26c | 345.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Yes | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 323$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 240.48$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…0267backed Yes | 75c | 198.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb6…ba42backed Yes | 29c | 183.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed No | 72c | 153.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 71c | 152.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Yes | 26c | 147.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Yes | 73c | 135.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 120.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 60c | 115.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 69c | 114.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 27c | 114.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…04afbacked Yes | 29c | 113.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 76c | 108.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed No | 68c | 107.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Yes | 71c | 105.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked No | 69c | 94.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 85.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 42c | 78.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 23c | 77.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 33c | 60.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 75c | 59.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 27c | 52.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed No | 74c | 50.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…a9a3backed Yes | 26c | 49.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 69c | 49.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 73c | 49.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 32c | 45.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 41.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 74c | 40.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 39c | 32.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 30.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 78c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 78c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 78c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…922bbacked No | 76c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.