Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1ae3c367920c1ef7c50abae3b1083f43adb98fb1d1b4172a8d898a776930aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 52c | 1,111$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.28 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 48c | 750.96$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.46 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 747.61$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.04 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 63c | 681.46$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.13 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 12c | 599.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.83 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…2f4bbacked No | 79c | 594.72$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 68c | 544.33$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.49 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked No | 43c | 494.13$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.48 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 57c | 468.12$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.29 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 43c | 449.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Yes | 16c | 333.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 68c | 295.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 720 | 44.2%318 W · 402 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 22c | 292.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 291.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 40c | 235.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 34c | 219.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed No | 46c | 189.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 10c | 180.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +220.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 55c | 170.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 184 | 42.4%78 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 61c | 166.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 66c | 160.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 31c | 155.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 69c | 150.07$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 43c | 148.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 140.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Yes | 70c | 126.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 59c | 121.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…3251backed Yes | 10c | 118.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +420.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed No | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 115.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed No | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 72c | 107.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked No | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 43c | 93.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 92.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 23c | 89.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes | 17c | 89.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 59c | 83.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 55c | 78.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 38c | 77.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Yes | 57c | 61.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 26c | 56.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 42c | 55.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 58c | 51.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 58c | 51.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Yes | 57c | 50.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 49.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 40c | 44.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 58c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 34.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…cc16backed Yes | 45c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked No | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked No | 62c | 29.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked No | 48c | 29.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 70c | 19.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.