Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x140d2b816e3720320b854b486ef76e5816e63f8cdf20b0e0ee4d38dc3c01d030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8d7…1252backed Yes | 79c | 12,613$9,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,948.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 7,152$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,360.83 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 5,594$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,986.45 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Yes | 45c | 2,245$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 43c | 2,196$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.85 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,552$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 57c | 1,506$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.37 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 49c | 1,345$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.03 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 52c | 901.38$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.17 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 62c | 762.15$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.64 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 49c | 587.03$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.65 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 19c | 500.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 20c | 428.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 50c | 382.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.09 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 46c | 380.56$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 47c | 359.43$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 16c | 303.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed No | 50c | 291.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Yes | 14c | 287.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 20c | 286.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 43c | 272.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.65 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 68c | 261.45$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 56c | 251.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 80c | 244.36$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Yes | 22c | 220.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 205.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 61c | 194.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 63c | 178.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 60c | 142.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 42c | 124.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 50c | 118.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 42c | 117.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Yes | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 19c | 106.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 60c | 99.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Yes | 65c | 97.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 79c | 97.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 19c | 91.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 22c | 83.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 61c | 79.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 184 | 42.4%78 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Yes | 67c | 75.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0430…80a2backed Yes | 19c | 72.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Yes | 49c | 66.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…a9a3backed No | 38c | 62.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 50c | 61.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 38c | 59.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 40c | 51.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…2f14backed Yes | 25c | 47.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 40c | 43.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 37c | 40.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked No | 40c | 36.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 50c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 50c | 27.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 720 | 44.2%318 W · 402 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 64c | 25.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…d8bcbacked Yes | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 53c | 24.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 71c | 18.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…1932backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…3251backed Yes | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +420.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.