Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe25bde47814a4559e1f641338f9bebbe42d3d007514c3de7d8e0f91347dfaf00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,113$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 4c | 954.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 392.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 288.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 67c | 241.59$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed Yes | 12c | 218$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 27c | 197.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 179.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…88a2backed Yes | 17c | 157.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 149.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 31c | 140.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 122.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 17c | 107.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 19c | 102.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 101.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 99.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 99.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 98.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 93.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed No | 74c | 92.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 26c | 84.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 83.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 69.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…0f31backed Yes | 33c | 67.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 66.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 38c | 61.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 61.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes | 30c | 61.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 58.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 57.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 55.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 61c | 55.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 35c | 53.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 51.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…c9cbbacked Yes | 31c | 50.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 78c | 47.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 46.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 35c | 43.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 37.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 36.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 35.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…17c7backed Yes | 33c | 34.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 73c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 68c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 72c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.