Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce5468ca0523a67452a741fdf42e4d35d8eec3f5be8d23a4767360fdbde7727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 19c | 3,719$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.06 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,660$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,227$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 1,039$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,013$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 860.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 9c | 733.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 2c | 722.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 17c | 706.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 54c | 658.44$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 4c | 617.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 16c | 565.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 23c | 558.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 16c | 548.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 474.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked Yes | 24c | 473.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 458.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 13c | 425.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked No | 74c | 353.74$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 14c | 347.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 31c | 338.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 7c | 322.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked Yes | 8c | 313.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 8c | 313.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 8c | 313.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 8c | 313.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 301.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 17c | 287.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…23c3backed Yes | 14c | 253.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 74c | 247.91$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaded…ff9abacked Yes | 20c | 226.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 163.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 162.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad5…1d16backed Yes | 14c | 138.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 34c | 134.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 14c | 126.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 15c | 121.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 12c | 118.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 22c | 117.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 16c | 111.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…ed3fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 71c | 102.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 100.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 17c | 90.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 85.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 71c | 75.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 73c | 74.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 72.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 51c | 70.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 51c | 64.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 24c | 63.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 58.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 66c | 52.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…753bbacked Yes | 30c | 51.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 72c | 44.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1e92backed Yes | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 58c | 34.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…68a3backed No | 73c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 62c | 26.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed No | 73c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 80c | 24.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed No | 73c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…de9ebacked No | 71c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed No | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.