Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359169cd387c52eec60e1894ba38acdc52b43f566ee2190496e9929c0939d5f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,957$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 19c | 911.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 789.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 21c | 616.88$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 603.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 497.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 21c | 400.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 17c | 375.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 364.89$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 361.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 12c | 355.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 340.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 30c | 333.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 312.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 16c | 311.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 8c | 309.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 293.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 290.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 18c | 284.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 21c | 274.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 266.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 36c | 261.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 253.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 244.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…88a2backed Yes | 25c | 231.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 19c | 222.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 214.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…f048backed Yes | 31c | 214.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 211.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaf…e80cbacked Yes | 23c | 204.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 199.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 198.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 26c | 195.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad5…1d16backed Yes | 24c | 192.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 14c | 186.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 182.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 20c | 182.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 8c | 181.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 24c | 180.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 178.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 14c | 177.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 28c | 171.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 168.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 21c | 165.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 155.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 154.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 154.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 29c | 149.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 33c | 142.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 23c | 138.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 134.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 22c | 125.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 23c | 124.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 32c | 122.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 26c | 112.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 11c | 109.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 15c | 105.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 24c | 101.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 18c | 101.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 19c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 100.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 75c | 98.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 14c | 91.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 37c | 87.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes | 21c | 87.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…09c1backed Yes | 32c | 87.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 86.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 21c | 86.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed No | 75c | 80.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 78.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 15c | 77.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 24c | 76.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 30c | 72.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 76c | 70.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes | 24c | 69.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 22c | 66.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 19c | 65.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 64.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 20c | 64.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…2381backed No | 77c | 63.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes | 18c | 62.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 25c | 61.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 58.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 57.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 57.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 33c | 56.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked Yes | 20c | 55.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…ceeabacked Yes | 35c | 55.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 79c | 53.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 35c | 53.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 49.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.