TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes11c1,957$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4237056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c911.84$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.62,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c789.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes21c616.88$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.636610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes19c603.44$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes14c497.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.381,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4464…b76dbacked Yes21c400.71$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.078626.7%23 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes17c375.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4118327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No77c364.89$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4542469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c361.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.011,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes12c355.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c340.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.882,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes30c333.86$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9331341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c312.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.683,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes16c311.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5971823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes8c309.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.214236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c293.42$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.731,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c290.05$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…a498backed Yes18c284.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.853522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes21c274.95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.269328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes19c266.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4370133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Yes36c261.91$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.573145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes21c253.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.114,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c244.06$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.151,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86ed…88a2backed Yes25c231.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.321040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+80.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes19c222.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9343238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No74c214.68$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.822,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb903…f048backed Yes31c214.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes20c211.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.15,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aaf…e80cbacked Yes23c204.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c199.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.925,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes35c198.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes26c195.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.952927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad5…1d16backed Yes24c192.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes14c186.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.132310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes20c182.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2710427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb6…337fbacked Yes20c182.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.274337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes8c181.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6512125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes24c180.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.925037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes21c178.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes14c177.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4614637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes28c171.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.526643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c168.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.422,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes21c165.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0340741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c155.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.719,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c154.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.187,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No79c154.47$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4420172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes29c149.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.385450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes33c142.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6452444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes23c138.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c134.22$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.442,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes22c125.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes23c124.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.117838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes32c122.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.528632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes26c112.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes11c109.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.977932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes15c105.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.677639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…4ac3backed Yes24c101.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.286048.3%29 W · 31 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x886d…c586backed Yes18c101.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes19c101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6611122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c100.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.491,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3941767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1727732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked No75c98.89$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5219047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes20c92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes14c91.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.18429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb557…634cbacked Yes37c87.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes21c87.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1066…09c1backed Yes32c87.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No77c86.6$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes21c86.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4327756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed No75c80.91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.022832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c78.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes15c77.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.516421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes24c76.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.512740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes30c72.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf7…ebeabacked No76c70.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.224369.8%30 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes24c69.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes22c66.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4211436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes19c65.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6718530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No79c64.53$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2526253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30d…a622backed Yes20c64.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ccf…2381backed No77c63.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes18c62.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes25c61.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2410163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No77c58.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No76c57.74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No77c57.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes33c56.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.662334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5076…e15dbacked Yes20c55.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb3…ceeabacked Yes35c55.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No79c53.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.471,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes35c53.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.686046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c49.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.