Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d3cd2afcd34ce3ae9a0416a747c32fb33c4ef067ee8237089badb28330dd4ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,024$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,980$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,677$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 13c | 1,327$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 693.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 690.19$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 8c | 597.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 569.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 468.44$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 4c | 441.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 430.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 426.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 57c | 399.96$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 18c | 292.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 274.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 64c | 267.08$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 251.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 79c | 221.66$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 7c | 219.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 42c | 219.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 212.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 206.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 202.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 35c | 199.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 185.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 131.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 37c | 122.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 119.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 33c | 115.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 111.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 99.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 39c | 97.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 95.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 21c | 95.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 54c | 94.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 92.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 91.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 42c | 88.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 36c | 87.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 29c | 85.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 58c | 84.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 79.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 78.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…4143backed Yes | 41c | 78.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 75.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes | 39c | 72.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 29c | 68.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 68.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked Yes | 37c | 64.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 63.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 66c | 61.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 67c | 61.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 62c | 60.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 39c | 58.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 56.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 32c | 55.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 34c | 54.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 51.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked No | 52c | 51.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…c9cbbacked Yes | 39c | 50.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 34c | 49.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 41c | 47.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 46.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 46.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 35c | 46.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 42c | 44.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 39c | 44.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 66c | 43.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 58c | 41.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 27c | 41.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…9eccbacked Yes | 43c | 39.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 38.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 36.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 35.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 38c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 41c | 32.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 76c | 32.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…17c7backed Yes | 41c | 32.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…ceeabacked Yes | 58c | 30.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed No | 58c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 67c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 47c | 27.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…7049backed No | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabef…dbc9backed Yes | 41c | 25.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 66c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.