TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x216e…fda6backed Yes50c9,724$4,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,861.877118.3%13 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No1c2,596$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes4c2,092$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.9811227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked No45c2,034$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.736610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes54c2,010$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.1490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes6c1,170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c955.05$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No3c897.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.081,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4464…b76dbacked Yes5c797.73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.688626.7%23 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes59c684.32$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.331,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes65c656.84$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes4c347.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.349328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No42c329.55$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.732,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes74c325.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.842040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes29c299.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.771823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes66c296.81$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.531542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes69c293.86$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2715545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes4c277.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.654831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes26c276.64$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.0939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5068…1ffabacked Yes54c251.77$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.325457.4%31 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes76c243.78$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.081,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes52c243.55$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6816651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c238.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.954,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes16c223.43$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes56c219.26$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No27c212.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes49c205.73$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No23c205.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2424066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked Yes72c204$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.123534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes74c200.26$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6737644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb6…2992backed Yes12c197.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.257116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes7c194.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c189$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7370133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed No24c183.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.252157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed No30c171.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.243511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Yes56c169.7$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.063145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes53c167.07$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.151,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed05…9368backed No50c164.96$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.651723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No13c164.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.221,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0208…c2c2backed Yes7c162.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.83326.3%2 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked No26c156.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0910426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked Yes50c154.83$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes7c152.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.629,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No70c150.62$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.422638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No66c150.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5819059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes9c148.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.616324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb903…f048backed Yes65c144.73$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…63f0backed Yes75c143.67$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.323265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c142.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.742,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832c…23c3backed Yes67c139.83$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x466c…05f0backed Yes79c129.53$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.151361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes26c123.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.528632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed No17c122.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.566553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes59c122.13$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No51c119.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8420838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No27c119.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.131,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes65c114.6$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.131,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes22c111.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4811729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c105.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.046219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No20c102.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes20c101.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.692,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes37c98.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.515450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No64c97.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9420958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes51c97.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2153547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…753bbacked Yes36c86.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes76c84.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes12c84.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.318013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes38c81.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3814637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac4…57bfbacked No30c77.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes24c76.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.72740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c71.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.677,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb557…634cbacked Yes55c69.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.161844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes47c64.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4417838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No54c64.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes79c60.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.661258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked No19c59.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0419047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No34c56.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9721440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes56c55.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0218845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad5…1d16backed Yes71c54.55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed No20c54.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.732832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64fc…e1c5backed Yes73c53.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c51.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc004…7eabbacked No56c51.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.061662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No48c50.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2332830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes37c48.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7926738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c48.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.888,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…f288backed Yes56c47.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.13053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No31c45.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9723349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63ad…c072backed No53c45.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.972536%9 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4650…8be6backed Yes76c45.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.793961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccf…2381backed Yes70c41.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.32785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe97…83a8backed No77c39.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.631566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes68c39.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4743441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No53c37.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9821848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes50c37.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.934362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x045c…c74abacked Yes51c37.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.231643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed No42c34.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1611122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes39c33.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3835133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No73c32.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1926253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.