MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26bf612c5521c5cea33a3838a9aa29e7b3807c77b8e8edfd3de5d8acd93a7be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 2,180$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.78 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,908$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 65c | 1,428$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.77 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 35c | 703.96$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 668.43$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 43c | 496.11$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 336.82$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 68c | 327.64$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 311.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 66c | 177.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 161.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 148.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…435fbacked Over | 34c | 119.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 66c | 99.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 55c | 87.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 55c | 81.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 33c | 47.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 37c | 39.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 33c | 37.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…4b88backed Under | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 29.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.