Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe276359afe34ae714a90975c6e638db2e1b245faedee1d9d4e0eab430156cfba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 15,488$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 78c | 715.3$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.46 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 33c | 511.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.01 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 42c | 500.11$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 65c | 376.68$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.1 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 319$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 308.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 210.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 58c | 171.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 160.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 46c | 159$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 157.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 41c | 147.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 14c | 146.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 140.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 101.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 97.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 87.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 86.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 66c | 78.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 44c | 75.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 16c | 71.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 68.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…a5b0backed Yes | 44c | 68.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 60.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 60.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 63c | 58.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 33c | 55.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 55.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 52.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…5009backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 48.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 46.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 28c | 41.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 39.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 48c | 37.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 37.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c56…87acbacked No | 53c | 36.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…669ebacked Yes | 33c | 36.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 34.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…8af7backed Yes | 32c | 33.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 58c | 33.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 74c | 32.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 71c | 31.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…45a5backed Yes | 40c | 30.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 57c | 28.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 57c | 26.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 69c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 64c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.