NHL · resolved market

Spread: Capitals (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28427c17b487641ba054e1a0f355c5b189f303aae4ceebad3a070e4742fa10e

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Capitalsof Capitals, Rangers
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,207 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1464…5e75backed Rangers	66c	3,300$2,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,166	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Capitals	34c	2,459$848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,610.67	107	53.3%57 W · 50 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Capitals	34c	1,451$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.66	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Capitals	44c	412.74$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.02	2,664	51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rangers	49c	350.96$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.36	2,314	46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Capitals	35c	281$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.34	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked Capitals	35c	202.59$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.69	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Rangers	79c	194.16$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.02	151	45%68 W · 83 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Capitals	36c	188$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.32	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+7.9wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x423f…b0f6backed Rangers	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3a…4d10backed Capitals	75c	157.57$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.89	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Capitals	36c	143$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.52	54	74.1%40 W · 14 L	+11.1wins	+0.21per pick	53cpaid	+49%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Capitals	36c	142$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.88	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Capitals	36c	139.02$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.85	182	62.1%113 W · 69 L	+15.6wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Capitals	38c	132.89$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.89	784	43.8%343 W · 441 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Capitals	36c	122$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.08	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Capitals	36c	117$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.88	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals	36c	99.98$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.99	541	32.7%177 W · 364 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Capitals	25c	92.42$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.59	139	41.7%58 W · 81 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rangers	62c	92.2$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.17	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6014…5a58backed Rangers	64c	88$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bea…6ce6backed Capitals	36c	70$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.19per pick	53cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Capitals	36c	65.11$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.35	143	47.6%68 W · 75 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Rangers	64c	62.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.23	104	50%52 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8c…666abacked Capitals	38c	60$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…4523backed Rangers	65c	60$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Rangers	65c	60$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rangers	65c	58.62$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.9	1,530	51.7%791 W · 739 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Rangers	63c	56.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.35	1,107	52%576 W · 531 L	+63.9wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed Capitals	36c	56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.84	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+38.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Capitals	36c	53$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.92	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Capitals	39c	52.82$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.98	490	45.3%222 W · 268 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Rangers	63c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	134	53%71 W · 63 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…9b15backed Rangers	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Capitals	36c	48$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.72	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Rangers	64c	46$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf5…840ebacked Rangers	64c	43$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Rangers	64c	43$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8380…1866backed Rangers	64c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc2…e450backed Rangers	64c	39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Capitals	36c	39$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.96	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Rangers	64c	38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed Rangers	64c	37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e5…81acbacked Rangers	64c	37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Rangers	64c	36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rangers	64c	36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Rangers	64c	36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50ad…2c48backed Rangers	64c	33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+4.1wins	+0.22per pick	52cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5266…ddaebacked Rangers	64c	33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c9…3f9fbacked Rangers	64c	33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f1…1ec7backed Capitals	36c	32.08$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.53	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-4.2wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x684b…47edbacked Rangers	64c	32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b73…a19dbacked Rangers	64c	31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed Rangers	64c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rangers	65c	29.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	939	53.6%503 W · 436 L	+29.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e71…8913backed Rangers	64c	29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-40%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Capitals	36c	28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3517…9f8dbacked Rangers	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed Rangers	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed Rangers	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-33%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Rangers	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed Rangers	64c	23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Rangers	64c	23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Rangers	64c	22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Rangers	62c	20.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	352	48%169 W · 183 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…bbe8backed Rangers	64c	18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ab…b38dbacked Rangers	64c	17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb75…bc16backed Rangers	64c	16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
Rangers vs. CapitalsCapitals won
Rangers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Capitals (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event