Tennis · resolved market
Cervia: Juan Martin vs Michele Ribecai
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ba20f4cf2f8ab9333ae52754f7be051935b82db600279e1baa1a105505fabe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Martinof Juan Martin, Michele Ribecai
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6c3…55a3backed Michele Ribecai | 44c | 2,354$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.69 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Michele Ribecai | 35c | 2,077$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.29 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Juan Martin | 36c | 999.91$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.94 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Michele Ribecai | 55c | 881.43$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.68 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Juan Martin | 62c | 663.79$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.18 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juan Martin | 42c | 519.58$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Michele Ribecai | 33c | 509.61$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Martin | 61c | 500$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Michele Ribecai | 42c | 426.07$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.9 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Michele Ribecai | 56c | 401.46$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.24 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Juan Martin | 41c | 343.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Michele Ribecai | 64c | 259.22$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 1,065 | 57.4%611 W · 454 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Juan Martin | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Juan Martin | 56c | 146$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Michele Ribecai | 68c | 144.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Juan Martin | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Juan Martin | 32c | 125.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Michele Ribecai | 27c | 123.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…60c0backed Michele Ribecai | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Juan Martin | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Juan Martin | 40c | 85.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Michele Ribecai | 62c | 85.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Michele Ribecai | 28c | 85.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Juan Martin | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Michele Ribecai | 70c | 71.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Michele Ribecai | 48c | 62.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 212 | 59.4%126 W · 86 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Michele Ribecai | 34c | 59.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Juan Martin | 63c | 49.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Juan Martin | 69c | 45.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Juan Martin | 56c | 41.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Juan Martin | 42c | 41.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Michele Ribecai | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Juan Martin | 48c | 37.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Juan Martin | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Michele Ribecai | 60c | 35.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Michele Ribecai | 71c | 35.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Michele Ribecai | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Juan Martin | 38c | 33.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Michele Ribecai | 35c | 32.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Juan Martin | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…737ebacked Michele Ribecai | 58c | 27.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Michele Ribecai | 68c | 27.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Juan Martin | 48c | 22.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Juan Martin | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…af18backed Juan Martin | 53c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Michele Ribecai | 77c | 20.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Michele Ribecai | 64c | 16.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.