Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2cf7bb40559995a0e54e44f7ab3aeb3f7c0679b5c8f3f04ebaca5070bf73ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 19c | 704.28$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.75 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed No | 4c | 617.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 487.63$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 74c | 388.09$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 10c | 330.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 329.33$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 80c | 298.9$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 50c | 199.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 53c | 197.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 193.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 190.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 24c | 182.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 54c | 175.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 40c | 170.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 45c | 168.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 16c | 147.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 145.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 16c | 142.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 56c | 140.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 118.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 38c | 107.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 39c | 100.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 75c | 96.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 27c | 92.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 90.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…bd87backed Yes | 64c | 90.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 57c | 90.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 65c | 88.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 54c | 87.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…9493backed No | 57c | 82.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 79.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 78.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 77.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 42c | 77.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 73.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 64.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…90a5backed No | 19c | 62.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…f35dbacked Yes | 41c | 62.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 21c | 62.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 47c | 59.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 76c | 58.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 49c | 58.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 58.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 43c | 57.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 48c | 57.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 46c | 56.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked No | 67c | 56.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 47c | 54.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 54.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 77c | 53.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 73c | 48.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 60c | 47.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 28c | 42.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 59c | 41.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 46c | 41.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 49c | 40.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…ac29backed Yes | 35c | 39.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 53c | 39.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 42c | 37.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 38c | 37.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 35.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked No | 64c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 58c | 32.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 30.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 69c | 28.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 68c | 26.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 25.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…1b89backed Yes | 57c | 25.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…e3f4backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 79c | 24.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 43c | 24.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 23.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 21.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 59c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 68c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 61c | 17.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 80c | 12.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.54per pick | 70cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.