Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf20847aaf9147d068822ee8774291d2bee2b4d109110fe9555f9b3a6b18e0e9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…f2acbacked Yes | 1c | 911.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 2c | 889.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 25c | 552.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.98 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 445.53$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 20c | 318.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 283.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 38c | 253.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 246.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 29c | 241.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 204.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 193.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 51c | 186.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 180.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 79c | 157.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed No | 65c | 149.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 33c | 148.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 39c | 146.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 34c | 132.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 110.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 10c | 109.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 34c | 109.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 48c | 94.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 27c | 91.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 28c | 83.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked No | 58c | 82.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…96dcbacked Yes | 61c | 79.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 71c | 79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 34c | 68.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 67c | 68.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 67.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 62.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 23c | 58.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 58.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 58.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 43c | 57.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…9493backed No | 74c | 55.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 35c | 52.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 57c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 30c | 48.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 46c | 47.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 68c | 44.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 69c | 38.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c0…7288backed No | 29c | 38.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 38.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 49c | 37.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 29c | 37.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 43c | 37.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 36.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…bd87backed Yes | 68c | 34.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 31.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 42c | 30.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 46c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…5ed3backed Yes | 49c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 27.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 62c | 27.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 74c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 43c | 24.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 23.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…5995backed Yes | 69c | 21.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.