NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Colts
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2da54b2f6d553085bf7091ac0b6739bce0fc0c5c44648f77395e4b58e5aa93c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Bengals, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Bengals | 21c | 8,591$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.4 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Colts | 67c | 5,383$3,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.89 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Bengals | 6c | 4,341$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.31 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Colts | 60c | 2,858$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…ce3bbacked Bengals | 36c | 2,363$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Bengals | 24c | 1,750$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Bengals | 28c | 1,539$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.1 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Colts | 73c | 1,513$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.55 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Colts | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…bffdbacked Colts | 74c | 1,494$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Colts | 69c | 1,408$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.88 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Colts | 71c | 1,388$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.61 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bengals | 27c | 1,144$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.38 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Colts | 61c | 960$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Colts | 74c | 794.12$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Bengals | 30c | 716.04$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.81 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Bengals | 22c | 663.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bengals | 26c | 626.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Bengals | 28c | 622$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.48 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965a…003bbacked Bengals | 33c | 593.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Colts | 72c | 479.17$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Bengals | 32c | 423$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Colts | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bengals | 27c | 386.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bengals | 30c | 353.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…6f77backed Colts | 74c | 344.16$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…ef6cbacked Bengals | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Colts | 74c | 269.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Colts | 63c | 253.03$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8cf9backed Colts | 70c | 220.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Colts | 63c | 204.22$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Colts | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…4af5backed Colts | 71c | 197.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdac…54fbbacked Colts | 70c | 194.29$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Bengals | 33c | 175$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…3cf1backed Bengals | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Bengals | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Bengals | 31c | 159.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Colts | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…f0afbacked Bengals | 31c | 140.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bengals | 30c | 111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…6fc1backed Colts | 73c | 109.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Colts | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Bengals | 30c | 104.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Bengals | 28c | 100.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Bengals | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…d04cbacked Bengals | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed Bengals | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Bengals | 27c | 84.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…26dcbacked Bengals | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Colts | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…ab24backed Colts | 72c | 68.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…64adbacked Bengals | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6ab3backed Colts | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…f089backed Bengals | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…b877backed Colts | 71c | 50.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…a22bbacked Colts | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…caacbacked Bengals | 33c | 48.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…9039backed Bengals | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Colts | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…db71backed Bengals | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…f77ebacked Colts | 70c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…e253backed Colts | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Colts | 72c | 30.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed Colts | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Colts | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Colts | 66c | 26.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Colts | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…eecdbacked Colts | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…e389backed Colts | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.