Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe348c6004725ed98a8fcb12de1da207ade99a688410b8df4438c791d80c61550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 1c | 22,111$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 76c | 940.25$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.49 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 28c | 672.53$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.03 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 78c | 664.35$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.93 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 597.4$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 548.81$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 392.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 46c | 386.9$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.7 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 70c | 360.15$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 55c | 298.46$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 68c | 295.89$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.51 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 271.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 31c | 232.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.62 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 229.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 70c | 224.31$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 41c | 215.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 35c | 212.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 47c | 193.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 14c | 166.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 151.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 147.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 26c | 132.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…c8d5backed Yes | 78c | 132.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 88.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 81.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 50c | 55.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 47c | 51.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 45c | 50.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 47c | 43.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…4526backed Yes | 74c | 38.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…c795backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…5dadbacked No | 64c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 52c | 23.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 55c | 21.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 21.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 20.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…008fbacked No | 64c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.