NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe353ff6eee1a86d7e7770135f5150f394b35b750fa11109038bab29350cf4cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Oilers | 48c | 2,795$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Kings | 52c | 2,755$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.56 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings | 69c | 1,653$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.72 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Oilers | 31c | 1,174$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.06 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Oilers | 31c | 428$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.32 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Oilers | 31c | 307.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac8…d52bbacked Kings | 59c | 267.56$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 41c | 224.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.87 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Kings | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oilers | 46c | 120.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Oilers | 30c | 118.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kings | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Oilers | 28c | 85.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kings | 54c | 80.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 68c | 78.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Oilers | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Oilers | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Oilers | 42c | 56.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…f2ffbacked Oilers | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kings | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 70c | 32.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kings | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Kings | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639c…8989backed Kings | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kings | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. KingsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.