NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b92a99f9578a4dae19f6d1a272ccb37e78a5b56f5c86c152180ee33eac0680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $290,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 54c | 233,252$125,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107,295.94 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 150,000$69,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,000 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Over | 53c | 44,125$23,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,738.96 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 46c | 38,916$17,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,901.46 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…d25bbacked Under | 47c | 31,230$14,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,678.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,200 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 11,612$5,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,341.52 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 47c | 6,994$3,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,287 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 47c | 4,609$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.23 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.95 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…13b6backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Under | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.18 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 1,713$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.96 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 49c | 1,500$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 1,496$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.02 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 53c | 1,064$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.58 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,056$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.52 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 47c | 810$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 765.42$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.42 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 51c | 609.86$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.83 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05aa…22f4backed Under | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 46c | 383.7$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…024abacked Under | 47c | 364.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 346$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…042fbacked Over | 54c | 342.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 299.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 250.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 222.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…83f4backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efa0backed Under | 51c | 147$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 143.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 124$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 120.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Under | 47c | 104.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…b482backed Over | 53c | 96.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Under | 50c | 79.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 49c | 58.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 46.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Under | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed Under | 47c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 46c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Over | 54c | 27.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…3152backed Over | 54c | 26.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 26.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453f…6b3bbacked Under | 47c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9860backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…2c7cbacked Over | 54c | 22.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…bf37backed Over | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…fed6backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. KingsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Oilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.