Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe35c6689d09b2b4979e3149140f17b9b390115c4037c70441a42dbc9ccf97c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 29c | 1,417$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.13 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked No | 75c | 662.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 66c | 547.35$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.27 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 17c | 191.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 76c | 130.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…6bf7backed Yes | 31c | 129.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 76c | 74.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0516backed No | 74c | 18.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 4?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $107 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $108 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.