Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e9ea981cbad13ee89a65e00f05452da374ae4f1227b77e043031bccf09c7b83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 57c | 1,611$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.36 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 40c | 1,340$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.91 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,095$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 28c | 592.25$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 16c | 430.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 60c | 217.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 210.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 74c | 131.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 50c | 107.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 101$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…34c0backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…5792backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Yes | 68c | 56.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed Yes | 72c | 38.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…3738backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 4?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $107 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $108 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.