La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe363c07d2815046630a4f4271ae15f4192090e9ef1d3522bc1c4fee2f764c19d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed No | 69c | 125,867$86,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,020.02 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 31c | 100,303$31,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,093.87 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 31c | 12,503$3,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,875.9 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 31c | 10,802$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.68 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Yes | 32c | 1,650$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 985.83$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.39 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 68c | 700.37$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 31c | 402.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 6c | 206.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 17c | 206$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 77c | 198.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 31c | 142.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 31c | 107$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Yes | 31c | 100.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Yes | 31c | 98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8528backed Yes | 32c | 92.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed No | 68c | 90.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 68c | 61.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 48.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Yes | 32c | 39.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Yes | 33c | 33.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 74c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 69c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Real Zaragoza vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw?No won
- Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.