CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs SPARTA (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3644b3c64c03b9ea1f1ef4f8b83317f15ce10ff1b2bd2f4ed727ede48c62ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SPARTAof BET-M 33, SPARTA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed BET-M 33 | 47c | 2,869$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.62 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed BET-M 33 | 46c | 1,167$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.25 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed SPARTA | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf48…36c2backed SPARTA | 53c | 957$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.15 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed SPARTA | 53c | 693.34$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.23 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed BET-M 33 | 26c | 685.62$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.23 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked SPARTA | 55c | 549.97$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.49 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed SPARTA | 73c | 437.02$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed BET-M 33 | 44c | 365.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.91 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SPARTA | 54c | 356.17$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…fc9bbacked SPARTA | 52c | 342.73$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.51 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked SPARTA | 52c | 341.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 232 | 44.8%104 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…3543backed SPARTA | 54c | 334.31$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed SPARTA | 54c | 332.83$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 482 | 40%193 W · 289 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed BET-M 33 | 35c | 330.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed SPARTA | 61c | 328.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 225 | 67.1%151 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked SPARTA | 75c | 309.88$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked BET-M 33 | 46c | 255.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 239.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked SPARTA | 73c | 219$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…fa33backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 208.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed BET-M 33 | 45c | 204.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…7205backed SPARTA | 52c | 196.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed SPARTA | 49c | 192.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327a…3480backed BET-M 33 | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked BET-M 33 | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…51ffbacked BET-M 33 | 45c | 147$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…076cbacked SPARTA | 53c | 145.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked SPARTA | 53c | 141.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…4ceabacked SPARTA | 74c | 141.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SPARTA | 65c | 137.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked SPARTA | 52c | 136.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…8a03backed BET-M 33 | 30c | 135.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed SPARTA | 53c | 135$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…d1acbacked BET-M 33 | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed BET-M 33 | 9c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed SPARTA | 52c | 127.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed SPARTA | 76c | 123.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed BET-M 33 | 31c | 110.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked SPARTA | 74c | 108.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked BET-M 33 | 49c | 104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed SPARTA | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…77e9backed SPARTA | 54c | 97.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked BET-M 33 | 33c | 94.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…d44cbacked SPARTA | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed BET-M 33 | 47c | 80.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed SPARTA | 52c | 79.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SPARTA | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed SPARTA | 55c | 74.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked SPARTA | 65c | 72.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked SPARTA | 52c | 71.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 171 | 42.1%72 W · 99 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed BET-M 33 | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1c…6b60backed BET-M 33 | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…8b5ebacked BET-M 33 | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked BET-M 33 | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…0f42backed BET-M 33 | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…1f82backed BET-M 33 | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked SPARTA | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1291…bf1fbacked SPARTA | 53c | 53.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked SPARTA | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed SPARTA | 52c | 45.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…f864backed SPARTA | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked SPARTA | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked SPARTA | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…1160backed BET-M 33 | 45c | 38.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 414 | 37%153 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed SPARTA | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked BET-M 33 | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…9abcbacked SPARTA | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed SPARTA | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…a44dbacked SPARTA | 59c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed BET-M 33 | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…5b7cbacked BET-M 33 | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked BET-M 33 | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed SPARTA | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked SPARTA | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,274 | 71.5%911 W · 363 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked SPARTA | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked SPARTA | 70c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdc…838abacked SPARTA | 78c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs SPARTA (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs SPARTA - Map 1 WinnerSPARTA won
- Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs SPARTA - Map 2 WinnerSPARTA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs BET-M 33 (+1.5)SPARTA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.