Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39710abc763955393c6ce3ff3921e3d1d2daf640cc851156538ee3722ed5c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,345 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed Yes | 5c | 2,349$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 26c | 2,144$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 2c | 2,131$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +323.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,728$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.53 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 1,380$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 21c | 964.5$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 907.54$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 74c | 900$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 859.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes | 25c | 786.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 663.6$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 5c | 445.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…7730backed Yes | 4c | 412.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 4c | 376.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 74c | 299.98$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Yes | 26c | 299.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…2c78backed Yes | 10c | 209.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 25c | 140.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 125.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 106.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 25c | 81.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed Yes | 26c | 80.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 26c | 49.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 45.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…6a3abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 75c | 33.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 75c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…d6c6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.