Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a648ec07f4987433ccd4994af448a952bd06c61e7fb74ae543245569bfffec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof OG, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd397…5052backed Heroic | 73c | 963.52$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 18c | 759.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed OG | 38c | 600.03$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.01 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Heroic | 72c | 504.28$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed OG | 12c | 419.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed OG | 33c | 200.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 31c | 199.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Heroic | 69c | 199.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic | 77c | 183.33$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 65c | 136.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 27c | 134.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG | 18c | 126.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked OG | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…ed1abacked OG | 37c | 93.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked OG | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…2ecdbacked OG | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 63c | 66.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Heroic | 65c | 25.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)OG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.