Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405d41859c26c442a30fcb824662ec2a01940d083d599149f93f359d257c38bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked OG | 45c | 8,845$4,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,842.26 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 52c | 4,899$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.76 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 33c | 1,890$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.36 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 56c | 1,459$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic | 63c | 1,153$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.2 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked OG | 42c | 954.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 54c | 829.46$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.61 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Heroic | 63c | 793.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Heroic | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Heroic | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 46c | 287.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic | 64c | 287$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Heroic | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Heroic | 64c | 200.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Heroic | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 33c | 164.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Heroic | 65c | 153.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Heroic | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed OG | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked OG | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…34b3backed Heroic | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Heroic | 66c | 117.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Heroic | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Heroic | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…b4a6backed OG | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 24cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…ddf4backed Heroic | 65c | 88.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Heroic | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…ab87backed Heroic | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed OG | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed OG | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Heroic | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked OG | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed OG | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked OG | 80c | 31.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked Heroic | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Heroic | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Heroic | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…b3fdbacked OG | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)OG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.