Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d8dbdbdd517e2a91e7d2324f13cfcf204f7df3827e6de699bfa72aa1dc55c9

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: OGof OG, Heroic
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $80,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,843 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4fe9…706abacked OG	51c	17,415$8,795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,620.09	158	52.5%83 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Heroic	49c	11,705$5,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,748.9	106	61.3%65 W · 41 L	+10.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Heroic	57c	7,025$4,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,003.16	226	47.3%107 W · 119 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed OG	39c	5,854$2,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,547.87	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic	64c	4,724$3,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,040	399	36.8%147 W · 252 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed OG	32c	4,100$1,295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,805.22	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Heroic	74c	4,071$3,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,027.49	276	45.3%125 W · 151 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Heroic	64c	2,189$1,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,402.64	234	65%152 W · 82 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Heroic	58c	1,901$1,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,102.57	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…abc9backed OG	28c	1,786$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,285.71	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic	72c	1,389$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.08	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Heroic	72c	1,253$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$907.87	118	55.1%65 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed OG	27c	1,200$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875.82	491	33.6%165 W · 326 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Heroic	54c	1,118$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609	610	57.9%353 W · 257 L	+2.8wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed OG	23c	1,086$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$836.12	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed OG	38c	1,000$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620	78	55.1%43 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed OG	40c	879.23$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.53	568	48.8%277 W · 291 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OG	27c	862.51$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.63	569	55.5%316 W · 253 L	+22.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heroic	58c	849.21$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.45	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Heroic	70c	571.43$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	45	73.3%33 W · 12 L	+4.0wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Heroic	70c	571.43$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	50	78%39 W · 11 L	+7.4wins	+0.15per pick	63cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed OG	28c	511$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.32	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+30%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic	71c	500$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Heroic	70c	499.99$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.99	128	51.6%66 W · 62 L	-9.8wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed OG	28c	471$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340.56	91	26.4%24 W · 67 L	-9.8wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked OG	36c	465.61$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.16	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb73b…7155backed Heroic	67c	447.76$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	70cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Heroic	62c	441.21$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.05	179	50.3%90 W · 89 L	+14.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Heroic	70c	428.57$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	33	72.7%24 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed OG	30c	400.14$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.2	807	42.6%344 W · 463 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed OG	51c	313.73$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.73	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Heroic	66c	225.61$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-5.3wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG	50c	219.6$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.8	451	39.2%177 W · 274 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Heroic	71c	210.51$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.46	464	51.5%239 W · 225 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed OG	34c	200$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	108	50%54 W · 54 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Heroic	72c	200$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad4…721fbacked OG	26c	200$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Heroic	50c	199.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	132	62.9%83 W · 49 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic	63c	190.91$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	581	52.5%305 W · 276 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed OG	30c	166.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.67	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Heroic	58c	165$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.7	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197b…7477backed OG	39c	149.36$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa2b…adcfbacked Heroic	70c	142.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd855…c823backed Heroic	53c	137.74$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Heroic	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked OG	40c	126.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.43	218	47.2%103 W · 115 L	+16.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed Heroic	54c	122.22$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	199	49.2%98 W · 101 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Heroic	53c	121.89$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	140	39.3%55 W · 85 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…e0d7backed Heroic	61c	115.02$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd4a…4e5ebacked OG	46c	108.1$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.1	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed OG	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	220	33.6%74 W · 146 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Heroic	56c	84.09$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.09	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Heroic	64c	80.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	192	46.4%89 W · 103 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Heroic	70c	72.5$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.75	476	60.7%289 W · 187 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e98…3e80backed OG	29c	68.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.18per pick	57cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed OG	31c	64.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	204	57.8%118 W · 86 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed OG	32c	62.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.5	233	47.2%110 W · 123 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1b7…fd5ebacked OG	31c	62.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.83	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc1e…07d1backed Heroic	72c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	64cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x420c…5f3ebacked OG	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+118.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Heroic	69c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked OG	31c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	30	50%15 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked OG	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	125	33.6%42 W · 83 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed OG	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	153	41.2%63 W · 90 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Heroic	73c	42.86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.21	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed OG	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	236	50.4%119 W · 117 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8211…8981backed OG	29c	41.38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.38	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Heroic	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked OG	28c	40$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Heroic	72c	40$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc8…21f0backed Heroic	52c	37.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb719…dacbbacked Heroic	62c	36$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe072…605cbacked OG	30c	33.77$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.64	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9bd…4dacbacked OG	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1765backed OG	39c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25d6…2998backed Heroic	71c	28.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498b…ca86backed Heroic	72c	27.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	63.6%68 W · 39 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)this page
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerOG won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event