MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3dfc9cfdb698a03eb443cfbf6a104216328260626b40e3f1c8685a2ccb6f851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 11,830$5,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,050.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Athletics | 59c | 5,594$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300.69 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 32c | 4,390$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 59c | 1,066$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 871$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.18 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 58c | 837.34$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.9 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 59c | 669.92$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Athletics | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Athletics | 58c | 478.13$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.53 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 21c | 472.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 425.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.47 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 425.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.47 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 58c | 207.79$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 195.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Athletics | 57c | 164.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 26c | 146.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Athletics | 59c | 143.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…72a3backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 119$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 104.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Athletics | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 58c | 99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 30c | 87.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 67.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 60.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Athletics | 43c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 32.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 29.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Athletics | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Athletics | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4e…589dbacked Athletics | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Athletics | 60c | 24.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.