MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b9f2d4a79b0880ec997cb4078aa299abb59217a40220065436a26ca2642f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 31,683$14,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,891.52 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 53c | 29,617$15,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,919.95 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 8,647$4,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064.09 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 6,789$3,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 1,784$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.14 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 779.99$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.59 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 756$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 53c | 749.99$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 574.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 474.3$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.69 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 54c | 375$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 288.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 69c | 287.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 31c | 285.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 278.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 270.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 239.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 132.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 128.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Over | 52c | 121.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 68c | 105.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Over | 53c | 97.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 58.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 57.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 53c | 54.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 47c | 32.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 61c | 31.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 54c | 27.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 26.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.