Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3e7d19a54b39fef9adf03538104ba8dd1261a9f72630e1e994f6468d18b042c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 2,467$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.78 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 423.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 317$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 302$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 286.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 274.88$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 35c | 241.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 201.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 151.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 128.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 97.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 68.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 65.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 65.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 60.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 22c | 56.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 52.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 51.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 49.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 47.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 47.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 39.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 36c | 32.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 34c | 30.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 70c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.