Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13f91f27e1386ecc0d709ab13181461fe437a60516ffd332605eabffda2d4a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,417$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 31c | 361.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 346.39$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 22c | 304.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 232.06$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 182.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 182.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 163.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 159.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 7c | 154.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 148.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 146.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 141.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 133.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 52c | 120.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 110.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 46c | 108.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 100.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 97.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 30c | 95.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 95.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 22c | 91.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 13c | 88.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 34c | 87.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 85.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 71.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 29c | 69.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 62c | 66.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 80c | 62.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 60.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 45c | 54.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…56a5backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 44.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 50c | 42.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 37c | 40.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 32c | 37.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 70c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 63c | 35.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 32.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 30.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 77c | 29.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 48c | 28.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 28.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 67c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed No | 56c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 61c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…bc4fbacked No | 63c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 66c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed No | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.