NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f49c5fefe207d882854d5eb821943b0e0624f047075c368d588bbf7690a53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Bengals, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bengals | 50c | 16,100$8,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,050 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jets | 51c | 13,745$6,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,780.33 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 50c | 11,099$5,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,587.41 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Bengals | 49c | 9,266$4,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,540.35 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jets | 50c | 8,100$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bengals | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Bengals | 51c | 7,000$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Jets | 49c | 2,886$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.01 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jets | 50c | 2,241$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.77 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Jets | 50c | 2,196$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.09 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Jets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 50c | 1,176$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Bengals | 51c | 499.1$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Bengals | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bengals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Bengals | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Bengals | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Jets | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Jets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Bengals won
- Jets vs. BengalsJets won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.