NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ba35b79d922aeff3388e3e75175cf1e6ab64374466d73ba657e03014bc871e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Bengals, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bengals | 42c | 16,050$6,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,800.56 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Jets | 60c | 9,584$5,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,807.27 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Jets | 57c | 4,035$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.59 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 39c | 3,313$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.79 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jets | 58c | 1,737$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.54 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bengals | 2c | 1,731$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bengals | 39c | 1,211$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.29 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Jets | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 57c | 1,051$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.7 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Jets | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 58c | 959$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.38 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Jets | 59c | 840$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.4 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bengals | 40c | 802.72$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.66 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bengals | 41c | 634$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.94 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Jets | 60c | 584.43$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Bengals | 39c | 569.43$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.08 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Jets | 61c | 500$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 57c | 468.49$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.46 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Jets | 58c | 420.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.69 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jets | 60c | 406.69$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bengals | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Jets | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Jets | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bengals | 43c | 26.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Jets | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Jets | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Bengals won
- Jets vs. BengalsJets won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.