NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7a165ea41ea6c97932bec9333f5a7a554d1f2149bd03610f40fe71fa7c3a14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 52c | 98,055$50,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,912.91 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 61,377$31,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,408.71 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 60,161$28,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,253.58 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 38,247$18,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,763.06 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 48c | 15,586$7,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,089.33 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 9,907$4,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.18 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 52c | 7,663$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.09 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 7,212$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.4 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 6,868$3,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,708.81 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 5,191$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.09 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 2,462$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.39 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 48c | 2,014$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.28 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 1,950$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 1,866$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.54 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 1,639$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.1 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…ce36backed Under | 54c | 1,574$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 54c | 742$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 389.14$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 346.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 52c | 320$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Over | 48c | 320$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 188.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…6412backed Over | 48c | 162.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 124$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…ba27backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 80.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…0bb4backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 48c | 38.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Under | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Bengals won
- Jets vs. BengalsJets won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Jets won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.