Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f83d9ebb49a28e03bc52b62aa3a5ce9b439f784a12576331ae52e813411153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 11c | 684.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 299.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 247.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 235$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 186.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 178.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 152.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 142.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 74c | 102.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 90.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 74c | 72.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 61.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 60.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 57.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 56.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 53.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 52.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 43c | 46.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 74c | 37.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 35.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 44c | 28.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 26.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 70c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 61c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 64c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.