Tennis · resolved market
Nottingham 3: Max Basing vs Luca Castelnuovo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4065e3ada225c2dfb3369491bc6145fdcea77acf2544650c580a3cf05b80f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Max Basingof Max Basing, Luca Castelnuovo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luca Castelnuovo | 10c | 19,329$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.7 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 16c | 1,508$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Luca Castelnuovo | 20c | 1,504$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luca Castelnuovo | 8c | 1,029$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Luca Castelnuovo | 17c | 1,028$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.55 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Luca Castelnuovo | 28c | 923.29$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.52 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Max Basing | 72c | 846$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Max Basing | 67c | 720.38$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.53 | 453 | 43.9%199 W · 254 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Max Basing | 72c | 411.32$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 447 | 51.7%231 W · 216 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Luca Castelnuovo | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Luca Castelnuovo | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 306.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Luca Castelnuovo | 13c | 291.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Luca Castelnuovo | 33c | 277.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 248 | 56.9%141 W · 107 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Luca Castelnuovo | 34c | 252.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Max Basing | 77c | 188.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Luca Castelnuovo | 21c | 180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Luca Castelnuovo | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luca Castelnuovo | 20c | 166.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Luca Castelnuovo | 12c | 165.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…97acbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 12c | 164.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Max Basing | 77c | 157.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…8872backed Max Basing | 76c | 155.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…377ebacked Luca Castelnuovo | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 18.5%46 W · 203 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Max Basing | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,671 | 53%885 W · 786 L | +44.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Luca Castelnuovo | 24c | 133.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 133.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Max Basing | 77c | 129.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Max Basing | 73c | 116$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Max Basing | 74c | 105.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Luca Castelnuovo | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Max Basing | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Luca Castelnuovo | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Max Basing | 72c | 69.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Max Basing | 73c | 68.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 280 | 55.4%155 W · 125 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…a60fbacked Max Basing | 78c | 67.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 166 | 67.5%112 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Luca Castelnuovo | 23c | 59.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 57.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Max Basing | 67c | 57.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Max Basing | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 40.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Max Basing | 69c | 38.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Max Basing | 80c | 37.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Max Basing | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,065 | 57.4%611 W · 454 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Max Basing | 78c | 30.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Max Basing | 73c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 204 | 54.9%112 W · 92 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…5e23backed Max Basing | 71c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8578backed Max Basing | 72c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.