TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c776.39$419 inLost-$419.2510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers46c500$230 inWon+$2701,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers51c445$229 inWon+$216.3511,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates57c300$171 inLost-$1715,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers54c141.31$76 inWon+$654,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Pittsburgh Pirates29c79$23 inLost-$22.9129251%149 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Milwaukee Brewers46c69.57$32 inWon+$37.5747345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c66$22 inLost-$22.443,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates46c65.22$30 inLost-$3023357.5%134 W · 99 L+22.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Milwaukee Brewers46c51.35$24 inWon+$27.738350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Milwaukee Brewers46c50$23 inWon+$274843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Pittsburgh Pirates46c43.48$20 inLost-$2053655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Milwaukee Brewers46c33.3$15 inWon+$17.9812855.5%71 W · 57 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Pittsburgh Pirates46c32.61$15 inLost-$1546255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Milwaukee Brewers46c22.24$10 inWon+$12.0156435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.