MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15cfb9291b0d23391a00a31ba4bac34123a738980ed2b50cee96c92163f445be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 1,107$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 965.6$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 920.6$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.11 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 849.61$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 827.37$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 787.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.39 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 748.1$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 380$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 354.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 266.28$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 262$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.11 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 169.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 105.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 80.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 79.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 53.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 53.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 47.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 41.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 40.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 36.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…0801backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 26.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 16.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.