MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e64344f5e90882669e0b3c838d7c6100ade96e595f61661cc1b0527d075b55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 57c | 31,009$17,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,675.2 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 27,883$12,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,874.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…2d16backed Over | 58c | 3,544$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 58c | 3,356$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.44 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 42c | 2,597$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.5 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Over | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,340$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 31c | 1,337$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.34 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 57c | 1,010$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.7 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 986.63$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 43c | 675$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.75 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 69c | 671.31$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.49 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 3c | 497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 495$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 42c | 491.51$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.08 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 468$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 57c | 434.89$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.89 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 42c | 379$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 57c | 314.13$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 43c | 312.65$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 281.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 8c | 254$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 230.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 79c | 210$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 43c | 174.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 38c | 127.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 42c | 124.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Over | 12c | 115.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 98.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 38c | 98.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 44c | 96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 84.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 45c | 67.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 45c | 65.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 56c | 56.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 52c | 53.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 54c | 39.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 51c | 36.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 55c | 33.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 32.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 54c | 31.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 54c | 30.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 43c | 30.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Under | 59c | 29.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 36c | 28.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 67c | 17.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.