MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8041e774cbedb8826e67fe556df9b998494987c5e34c391f6d06cd26a18857b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 53c | 11,904$6,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,651.76 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 48c | 8,409$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,996.59 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 54c | 7,173$3,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.46 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 47c | 2,861$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.19 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 1,716$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.24 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,283$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.99 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 47c | 1,183$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.01 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 47c | 925.03$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.76 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…e0b4backed No | 53c | 737.28$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 706.19$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.38 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed No | 53c | 363.25$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.88 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 53c | 196.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 48c | 187.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 47c | 36.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 47c | 36.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.