MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042633fc39f4cbc8b82d0088acd207ce15b83d2c212b4b1a30583b1d877de714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 13,110$7,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,263.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 11,765$4,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,686.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 37c | 2,430$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.09 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 65c | 2,221$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.78 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 1,315$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.34 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 38c | 1,256$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.69 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 793.13$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Under | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 38c | 592.85$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.13 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 561.45$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…0608backed Over | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 61c | 373$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.13 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 38c | 291.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 189$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 39c | 155.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 38c | 149.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 143.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 38c | 125.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 49c | 112.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 60c | 99.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 99.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 70c | 96.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 44c | 81.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 76.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 59c | 74.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 69c | 68.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 38c | 62.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 38c | 62.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 38c | 53.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 30c | 49.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 62c | 46.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 50c | 41.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 50c | 39.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 64c | 37.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 62c | 34.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 40c | 34.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 63c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 40c | 29.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 42c | 25.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 70c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.